There's no mathematical reason why a first place finish at Grand Prix Toronto ought to be valued exactly twice as highly as a tenth place finish at Grand Prix Shanghai played two weeks later. While the numbers can tell us a lot, in the end we're trying to guess at what a collection of individuals will do. However, it's important to remember that predicting a metagame is not an exact science. Moreover, the decks that people see doing well when they look at tournament results are also the ones they're likely to pick up for their next event. What decks people have played in the past few weeks is a great indicator of what decks they're going to play this weekend. The "winner's circle metagame" is as good a method as any. These numbers were meant to help predict what decks would be played and perform well the following weekend. ![]() Then he would average out the data and assign each archetype a percentage. 2 points for finishing ninth through sixteenth.He called it the "winner's circle metagame." He would examine recent tournament results (for example, all Standard Grand Prix played in the last two months), he would assign each archetype: Years, ago, Hall of Fame pro Frank Karsten developed a method that's still used by many players and writers today. However, it is absolutely possible to make a broad prediction like, "between ten percent and twenty percent of players will be playing Esper Control." Educated predictions like this are tremendously helpful. There's always a lot of uncertainty in predicting the metagame for a Magic tournament. ![]() Even if you could, it would be impossible to predict which of those individuals you're going to get paired against. For a thousand-player Grand Prix, it's impossible to predict what every individual will do. To think ahead about what decks your opponents are likely to bring to a tournament is called predicting the metagame.įor large tournaments, it's impossible to predict the metagame with the same level of precision with which we discussed the example FNM above. If you could show up for your ten-player FNM knowing that three players will play Abzan, three players will play Esper, two players will play Mono-Red, and two players will play Green Devotion, then you could leverage that information into an advantage by building your deck accordingly. (Recall that an archetype is a recurring strategy with many possible variations). The most basic, and arguably most important, aspect of the Magic metagame is the relative popularity of different deck archetypes. If you decide to branch out and play the game against new opponents, then your metagame will change and you'll need to adjust your practice methods and strategy. If your friend Tommy has a poor internet connection and moves slowly during battles, this is an important aspect of your metagame. If your friend Sandy always uses flying units, this is an important aspect of your metagame. However, if all of your friends always play β, then for your metagame, it's in your best interest to practice only against β. ![]() To master the game, you'd need a deep understanding of all three factions. Imagine that your group of friends loves to play strategy war games that involve three different, distinct factions-let's call them the α (alpha), the β (beta), and the ω (omega)-each with its own strengths and weaknesses. Understanding the metagame can be just as important as the general strategy of the game itself. As you read, this article is becoming part of the metagame. It's everything that the players know, and everything that the players know the other players know. It's the deck archetypes that are popular, the new combo that everyone's talking about, and the hot sideboard strategy for the Esper mirror match. The metagame is everything in Magic that's not defined by the rules. ![]() It's governed by precise sets of rules concerning deck building, game play, and tens of thousands of cards. In other words, the game that we play is called Magic: The Gathering. Sight Beyond Sight | Art by Anastasia Ovchinnikova The metagame (the game outside the game) are all of the decisions, resources, and information that, while not explicitly part of the game, are nonetheless important to Magic. Understanding how other players think can give you a leg up on the competition. In Magic, it's also important to predict what strategies your opponents will be using, and make an effort to counter them as effectively as possible. Your tournament performance will be determined by more than just your skill in deck building and game play.
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